Stochastic simulation is widely used to study complex systems composed of various interconnected subprocesses, such as input processes, routing and control logic, optimization routines, and data-driven decision modules. In practice, these subprocesses may be inherently unknown or too computationally intensive to directly embed in the simulation model. Replacing these elements with estimated or learned approximations introduces a form of epistemic uncertainty that we refer to as submodel uncertainty. This paper investigates how submodel uncertainty affects the estimation of system performance metrics. We develop a framework for quantifying submodel uncertainty in stochastic simulation models and extend the framework to digital-twin settings, where simulation experiments are repeatedly conducted with the model initialized from observed system states. Building on approaches from input uncertainty analysis, we leverage bootstrapping and Bayesian model averaging to construct quantile-based confidence or credible intervals for key performance indicators. We propose a tree-based method that decomposes total output variability and attributes uncertainty to individual submodels in the form of importance scores. The proposed framework is model-agnostic and accommodates both parametric and nonparametric submodels under frequentist and Bayesian modeling paradigms. A synthetic numerical experiment and a more realistic digital-twin simulation of a contact center illustrate the importance of understanding how and how much individual submodels contribute to overall uncertainty.

How can diffusion models process 3D geometries in a coarse-to-fine manner, akin to our multiscale view of the world?

We consider the problem of crystal materials generation using language models (LMs).

Such reward model serves as a proxy to human preference, and it is critical to guide the RL step towards improving the model quality. In this work, we argue that the SFT stage significantly benefits from learning a reward model as well. Instead of using the human demonstration data directly via supervised learning, we propose to leverage an Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) technique to simultaneously build an reward model and a policy model. This approach leads to new SFT algorithms that are not only efficient to implement, but are robust to the presence of low-quality supervised learning data. Moreover, we discover a connection between the proposed IRL based approach, and a recent line of works called Self-Play Fine-tune (SPIN, Chen et al. [2024]).

Therefore, developing grid analysis algorithms is important for supporting reliable operations.

In this paper, we propose a novel adaptive preference loss, underpinned by distributionally robust optimization (DRO), designed to address this uncertainty in preference strength.

Third, we are the first to consider regularized monotone SCP (RMSCP).

Third, we are the first to consider regularized monotone SCP (RMSCP).